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Wednesday
Aug052015

Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed's Blessing


Two weeks ago, Morgan Stanley made a decisively bearish call on oil, noting that if the forward curve was any indication, the recovery in prices will be "far worse than 1986" meaning "there would be little in analysable history that could be a guide to [the] cycle."

As we said at the time, "those who contend that the downturn simply cannot last much longer are perhaps ignoring the underlying narrative that helps to explain why the situation looks like it does."

"At heart," we continued, "this is a struggle between the Fed’s ZIRP and the Saudis, who appear set to outlast the easy money that’s kept US producers alive." This is an allusion to the fact that the weakest players in the US shale industry - which the Saudis figure they can effectively wipe out - have been able to hold on thus far thanks largely to accommodative capital markets.

But persistently low crude prices - which, if you believe Morgan Stanley, are at this point driven pretty much entirely by OPEC supply - are taking their toll on producers the world over. That is, the damage isn’t confined to US producers.

In fact,

Read more....

 

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